THE ALL-RUSSIAN CLASSIFIERS ARE AN IMPORTANT TOOL FOR DESCRIBING AND MODELING TYPES OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

N. V. Poletaeva, N. S. Kolotova

Abstract


The article analyzes the construction of a time series of data obtained using two all-Russian classifiers of economic activities: ACTEA-2007 (data from 2005 to 2016) and ACTEA2 (data from 2017 to 2022). The research was carried out by types of activities in the field of information technology, the encoding of which varies greatly in these classifiers. The series are studied using Python program code. For the generated time series, statistical models were constructed using regression analysis and a forecast for two years ahead was made. When checking the possibility of applying one obtained equation to two samples, the Chow test is used. The research showed that it is possible to make a qualitative statistical model using various regression equations based on the given time series: in this article, polynomial and piecewise linear models are considered.

Keywords


statistical modeling; the all-Russian classifier of economic activities; regression analysis; polynomial; piecewise broken model

References


The All-Russian Classifier of Types of Economic Activity (ACTEA OK 029-2007 (KDES Ed.1.1)): Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of November 10, 2003, no. 677. -- URL: http://www.consultant.ru (in Russian) (date of access: 11/30/2023)

The All--Russian Classifier of Types of Economic Activity (ACTEA OK 029-2014 (KDES Ed.2)): Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of November 10, 2003, no. 677. -- URL: http://www.consultant.ru (in Russian) (date of access: 11/30/2023)

Lemeshko A.Y. [Criteria for Checking the Deviation of the Distribution from the Normal Law]. -- URL: https://ami.nstu.ru/headrd/seminar/publik_htmlguid_normal_tets.pdf (in Russian) (date of access: 11/30/2023)

Shanchenko N.I. [Lectures on Econometrics]. Ulyanovsk, UlSTU, 2008. (in Russian)

Kamornikov S.F., Kamornikov S.S. [Econometrics]. Moscow, Integration, 2012. (in Russian)

Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System (UIISS) [Electronic resource] -- URL: http:// rosstat.gov.ru/emiss (in Russian) (date of access: 11/30/2023)


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