MODELING THE SALES VOLUME OF COMPULSORY LIABILITY INSURANCE POLICIES OF HAZARDOUS FACILITY OWNERS

M. O. Sokolov, N. N. Ovchinnikova, E. I. Nazarova

Abstract


This paper performs modeling the sales forecast of compulsory insurance policies of hazardous production facilities for an insurance company in the Chelyabinsk region. The time series analysis of insurance policy sales was carried out and the data were tested for normal distribution and stationarity. ARIMA and SARIMA models were used to generate a forecast. The developed models were validated and demonstrated good forecast quality, confirming their practical applicability for assessing insurance sales dynamics.


Keywords


modeling; forecast; insurance policies; statistics

Full Text:

PDF

References


Mahdieva Yu.M. Modern Features and Prospects for the Development of Compulsory Liability Insurance in Russia and the Regions. Regional’nye Problemy Preobrazovaniya Ekonomiki, 2022, no. 12, pp. 40–46. DOI: 10.26726/1812-7096-2022-12-40-46 (in Russian)

Fookina S.P. Estimation of Model of Development of the Insurance Market of Russia. Azimut Nauchnyh Issledovanij: Ekonomika i Upravlenie, 2014, no. 2, pp. 77–80. (in Russian)

Box G.E.P., Jenkins G.M. Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day, 1970.

Rukavishnikova N.G., Zavertkina E.G. [Statistical Analysis of Data and Methods of Presenting the Results of the Study]. Yaroslavl’, YaGPU Publ., 2000. (in Russian)

Zerkina E.K., Nazarova E.I. Dynamics Modeling of Credit Interest Rate. Journal of Computational and Engineering Mathematics, 2023, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 54–66. DOI: 10.14529/jcem230305


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


 Save